“Graduation” refers to the movement of people off of social protection provision or large-scale safety net programs, out of vulnerability and poverty, and into more productive and resilient livelihoods. Programs with a graduation agenda tend to focus on household resource and asset accumulation, but little analysis of this underlying theory of change has been conducted. This paper is intended to fill this gap in analysis. The authors make the distinction between “threshold” and “sustainable” graduation; that is, the point at which beneficiaries no longer qualify for a program and the point at which their livelihoods have fundamentally changed. The authors use an ecological model to consider the macro-level factors, beyond the household, affecting program beneficiaries. The authors use program case studies and literature to critique the graduation theory of change. They conclude with considerations and recommendations for social welfare programs.
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